Based on analysis of the bitcoin mining economy, the world’s most well-known cryptocurrency could reach as high as $64,000 USD by the end of next year.
Bitcoin Miners Do the Selling
According to independent research boutique Fundstrat, which provides market strategy and sector research, the bitcoin mining boom could potentially send the dominant cryptocurrency by market capitalization to upwards of $64,000 USD by the end of 2019. States the company’s head of research, Sam Doctor, in a report:
We believe the current path of hash power growth supports a BTC price of about $36,000 by 2019 year end, with a $20,000-$64,000 range.
Bitcoin is infamously volatile, creating FOMOers and naysayers on what feels like a weekly basis. Nevertheless, Fundstrat believes the economics behind bitcoin mining create key support levels — since bitcoin miners are less likely to sell their rewards during market downturns, and more likely to cash out during bull runs. Explained Doctor in a conference call to CNBC on Thursday:
The primary net sellers, in our view, are bitcoin miners, and the rest are transactions between investors.
We believe breakeven mining costs provide a support level for $BTC, as #miners – main natural #Crypto sellers – reduce selling at low $BTCUSD price. Based on expected computing hashpower and breakeven cost growth, that could imply #Bitcoin price of $36,000 by 2019 year end. pic.twitter.com/CVwIWNz8Lr
— Sam Doctor (@fundstratQuant) May 10, 2018
Fundstrat has estimated that the current cash break-even price Antminer S7 models is $6,003 USD per bitcoin. The newer and more powerful Antminer S9, however, features a much lower break-even point at $2,368 USD. Both popular pieces of bitcoin mining hardware are manufactured by Bitmain, which boasted an operating profit between 3 billion USD to 4 billion USD in 2017. Doctor said:
The release of the next generation of rig hardware should trigger a new round of capex as well as hash power growth, which could accelerate if BTC price appreciates.
CRYPTO: Our quant/data scientist @fundstratQuant publishing #bitcoin mining white paper. Crypto mining economics lead/explain $BTC price—suggests $39,000 per bitcoin by YE19. key takeaways below… pic.twitter.com/f5ZQ4py3jS
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 10, 2018
According to CBNC, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee is the only major Wall Street strategist to cover Bitcoin.
Lee previously predicted last July that Bitcoin may reach $20,000 to $55,000 by 2022. At the time of that prediction, bitcoin was trading at $2,540. Lee also noted that bitcoin could become a viable substitute for gold.
Do you think bitcoin can reach upwards of 64,000 USD by the end of next year? Do you think the miners’ break-even point is indeed a key support level? Be sure to let us know what you think in the comments below!
Images courtesy of Bitcoinist archives, Twitter/@fundstratQuant, Twitter/@@fundstrat.